For Japan, the 1990s are commonly referred to as the “lost decade.” Those that know me are aware that I look beyond that and actually regard a quarter-century as the appropriate “lost” duration. However, if one really thinks about what has transpired and where we are today, it is rather impressive that Japan continues to [...]
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Pricey Japanese stocks?
Pricey, and Japanese stocks, are typically not heard together in the same sentence. However, since last September’s market rout, earnings have deteriorated to the point that the Nikkei 225 is trading at over 175x forward earnings; 10.1x on a trailing basis. No doubt the ratio will swell some more, potentially going negative for a quarter, [...]
Nikkei 9000, 8000, or 7000?
About a year ago today, I published a weekly Nikkei outlook discussing whether the Nikkei was headed to 13,000 or back to 12,000. Suffice to say that much has happened since then. At the start of the new fiscal year today, the range in question is broader, 7,000 – 9,000, but obviously it is not [...]
The Nikkei’s Losing Streak in Focus: No Plunge Protection Needed
If you haven’t heard yet, then you probably will some point on Monday: Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed in the red on Friday, marking its 12th consecutive decline, the longest since a 15-session losing streak in April-May 1954 during a time of “economic uncertainty” after the end of the Korean War. However, the [...]
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Just Wait Until Friday
Last week was another down week for the Nikkei, albeit very limited, but the Friday close of 13,942 was over 3.5% off the weekly high and the second consecutive week of a sub-14,000 finish. So, while the Nikkei had been showing signs of promise and not simply selling-off on every piece of bad news, a [...]
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Eyes on I-banks, Inflation, Yen
The Nikkei had a rough go last week indeed, losing 3.6% and the 14,000-level (13,973.73); TOPIX fell to 1,371.57 after a short-lived recovery of 1,400 two weeks ago. No worries though, as Chicago Nikkei 225 futures not only held 14k, but added 140 points to the upside (14,220) setting the stage for a gap up [...]
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Tough Week Ahead
The Nikkei 225 had a positive week, up a modest 1% to 14,489.44, its highest close since early January, but fell short of its calendar year high of 14,691. Remember, keeping things in perspective is important because the N225 opened the year at 15,155 and was trading 18,000-plus last year. In spite of recent resiliency [...]
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Testing Dubious Highs
Last week’s question of resiliency or reluctance at 14,000 for the Nikkei 225 Stock Average was answered, somewhat predictably, with another late-week rally. The Nikkei ended the week higher by 2.3% to 14,338.54 and the broader TOPIX, which rose by the same amount, recouped the 1,400-level (1,408.14) for the first time since January 10th. This [...]
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Resiliency or Reluctance at 14,000?
What to watch: Thursday, May 29: U.S. Revised Q1 GDP; Friday, May 30: CPI for April (May for select metropolitan areas); April – Industrial Production; April – Household income and expenditure survey; April – New housing starts; April – Unemployment and Ratio of Job Offers to Applicants Ongoing: Commodities and forex volatility — more inflation [...]
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Stayin’ Alive
What to watch: Monday and Tuesday, May 19-20: Bank of Japan [BoJ] Monetary Policy Meeting; Tuesday, May 20: Monthly Report of (May) Economic and Financial Developments [BoJ] Ongoing: Earnings season is in the home stretch; 150 announcements are scheduled for Friday (less than 50 are scheduled for the week of May 26); It goes without [...]
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