Please see my exclusive article at Seeking Alpha, “Why I’m Long Precious Metals (And Hope Others Will Continue to Buy Treasuries).” I look at some of the perils of investing in Treasuries; the performance of select assets and money growth since 1971 when president Nixon closed the gold window; and discuss my investments in iShares [...]
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Domestic and overseas factors a plenty for Japan
More often than not, it is overseas factors that have the largest influence on trading in Japan. However, from time to time there is enough commotion domestically that also warrants the attention of investors. Unfortunately, the cacophony coming out of the government these days is more concerning than usual (e.g. Japan Post management/reform, debt moratorium, [...]
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Shanghai selloff overshadows DPJ, Nikkei
The DPJ’s rise (and the LDP’s fall) is no longer debate material, but a welcome reality. As expected, the yen exhibited strength, and looks poised to test ¥92. The Nikkei meanwhile was quite volatile, gapping up, hitting a new ytd high at 10,767, tumbling into the start of the afternoon session to a low of [...]
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The perils of overcapacity in Japan
“Recession ends in Japan,” and headlines to that effect portray a different picture than the real one on the streets. In fact, despite the headline rebound in GDP, propping open the hood shows that the outlook for Japan is a return to status quo, little to nil export-driven growth at best, and raises the likelihood [...]
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A look at Japanese stock valuations
The Nikkei, like many other benchmark indices, is hardly the volatile, motion sickness inducing headline producer that it was of months past. But no matter how hard I’ve tried, I just haven’t been able to turn myself into a green shoots market cheerleader. Nevertheless, I may be willing to concede that downside risk (in terms [...]
Nikkei 9000, 8000, or 7000?
About a year ago today, I published a weekly Nikkei outlook discussing whether the Nikkei was headed to 13,000 or back to 12,000. Suffice to say that much has happened since then. At the start of the new fiscal year today, the range in question is broader, 7,000 – 9,000, but obviously it is not [...]
Recession confirmed in Japan — tell us something we don’t know
No need to get excited over the fact that the Japanese economy has now contracted two consecutive quarters (no shooting the messenger). That was largely already factored into equities, thus explaining the severely depressed levels registered of late. However, as The Economist reported in its latest edition, the “Toyota shock” of a sharp decline in [...]
Japanese stocks set to sink again as reality bites
Prior to yesterday’s 6.5% drop in Tokyo (Nikkei 225 close at 8,899), the N225 had rallied 33% in the prior six sessions to recoup a good chunk of the 37% drop between Oct. 1 and the 26-year low reached Oct. 27 at 7,162. Yesterday I stated the obvious in that Tokyo would sell-off as reality [...]
Awaiting a sell-off as reality strikes again
The benchmark Nikkei 225 has gained 33% in the last six trading sessions since bottoming at a 26-year low at 7,162 on October 27. However, to put the surge in perspective: from the start of October to that bottom, the Nikkei shed an even more impressive 37%. So at a close yesterday of 9,521, the [...]
BoJ caves in to pressure; Nikkei profit-taking ahead of 3-day
The Bank of Japan cut rates for the first time in seven years: 0.5% –> 0.3%, which is said to have disappointed the market and thus caused the sell-off in Tokyo (Nikkei 225: -5%; Topix-1: -3.6%). Not quite. The market had already opened lower and traded down throughout the entire session until the BoJ announcement. [...]
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