Former Japanese Finance Minister Nakagawa should never have been at the press conference that did in his career, and now has the Japanese press gone mad discussing “reputation risk.” It is disturbing that he was even allowed near the table. Equally troubling is how BoJ Governor Shirakawa didn’t preempt some questions, especially the one’s directed [...]
Archive | Economy
RSS feed for this sectionUPDATE: Borderless Conventional Banking Failure
No surprise that the BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.1%. That a return to deflation is expected comes as no surprise either, since in reality, deflation never really ended, even when commodities surged last year. Meanwhile, the Japanese are left in the same predicament, with next-to-zero returns on deposits and no real need or desire [...]
Recession confirmed in Japan — tell us something we don’t know
No need to get excited over the fact that the Japanese economy has now contracted two consecutive quarters (no shooting the messenger). That was largely already factored into equities, thus explaining the severely depressed levels registered of late. However, as The Economist reported in its latest edition, the “Toyota shock” of a sharp decline in [...]
Awaiting a sell-off as reality strikes again
The benchmark Nikkei 225 has gained 33% in the last six trading sessions since bottoming at a 26-year low at 7,162 on October 27. However, to put the surge in perspective: from the start of October to that bottom, the Nikkei shed an even more impressive 37%. So at a close yesterday of 9,521, the [...]
「女性の髪型、景気になびく」
An excerpt from Kinoshita Terunobu’s (木下 晃伸) latest e-newsletter discussing the length of women’s hair and its relationship to the Japanese economy : 「。。。 景気が良いほど髪の毛が長くなり、不景気になると髪の毛が短くなっている 。。。」 Essentially, the better the economy, the longer the hair; a weaker economy brings shorter hair styles… • 1997 花王 survey shows trend of shorter-hair among 20-year old women; 山一証券 [...]
Monday Morning Food for Thought on the US$, Inflation
The WSJ’s daily Asia news alert features a story with the headline: FALLING DOLLAR NOT SO OMINOUS: Though the falling dollar has led many to believe inflation is imminent, research suggests that the dollar does not drive U.S. inflation like it used to.
Nikkei Strong Open on May Machinery Orders Upside Surprise
May machinery orders +5.9% sequential vs. consensus estimate of 2.6% and high-end estimate of 5.0%. Nikkei 225 Stock Average up ~100 yen to ~18,240. Yen also weakening towards 123.5/US$, supporting exporter stocks. Nikkei could test ytd & multi-year intra-day and closing highs above 18,300 and 18,240, respectively.
What Does the U.S. and Japanese Consumer Have in Common?
Look at these two Bloomberg article headlines: 1. Japan’s Wages Drop, Limiting Consumer Spending Growth 2. Japanese Stocks Decline, Led by Sony, on Slower U.S. Consumer Spending
Renewed Talk of Yen Carry Trade Means Exporters Live Another Day
Watch the yen-U.S. dollar: we could see 119 for the first time since stocks sold-off globally back in late February. Yen weakness bodes well for Japanese exporters and Japanese stocks in general, despite the fact import costs rise. That is mostly overlooked, at least on the surface level. The yen carry trade remains too good [...]
Household Spending Up, Beats Estimates!?
You read the title correctly. In fact, household spending increased 2x the amount analysts expected, +1.3% in Feb. And, industrial production declined less-than-expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 4%, for the fourth consecutive month. Unfortunately, we aren’t seeing the wage growth that is necessary for consumer spending to really take off and pick up [...]
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