Please see my exclusive article at Seeking Alpha, “Why I’m Long Precious Metals (And Hope Others Will Continue to Buy Treasuries).” I look at some of the perils of investing in Treasuries; the performance of select assets and money growth since 1971 when president Nixon closed the gold window; and discuss my investments in iShares [...]
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Book Review: Trade Myths
Enzio von Pfeil, the author of Trade Myths: Globalization has left trade balances behind, is a Hong Kong-based investment advisor and he also manages his own family of funds using his Economic Clock. He is a regular contributor to Bloomberg TV and CNBC Asia. Enzio earned his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Freiburg [...]
M&A is key for Japanese equities in 2010 – Goldman Sachs
Reuters (article in Japanese) reports that Goldman Sachs issued a report earlier this week that argues M&A will be the major theme for Japanese equities in 2010. Having a ‘macro’ investment theme for the start of each new year is a ritual for brokerages in Japan, although it seems no one ever has the resolve [...]
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The ongoing JGB battle
No doubt David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) is an astute investor. Recently he declared his bearish view on JGBs, which subsequently has generated heavy interest among financial and political circles. Hats off to Gwen Robinson of FT Alphaville for solid ongoing coverage of the latest JGB tale (see JGBs and the ‘end’ of the short-squeeze fest). [...]
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Domestic and overseas factors a plenty for Japan
More often than not, it is overseas factors that have the largest influence on trading in Japan. However, from time to time there is enough commotion domestically that also warrants the attention of investors. Unfortunately, the cacophony coming out of the government these days is more concerning than usual (e.g. Japan Post management/reform, debt moratorium, [...]
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Relief for Japanese exporters?
This brief post was inspired by a Bloomberg story on Asian currency strength — a good read, by the way. My thoughts: an even stronger Korean won would bring some relief to Japanese exporters. However, it’s not clear just how much (for instance, consider the volume of autos sold by JP vs SK) with such [...]
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Strong yen the new norm as Japan poised to reform?
Interesting developments in the Nikkei ahead of the parliamentary election at the end of this month, which at this point looks as if it will finally bring an end to LDP rule. A foreign exchange rate of $1/¥94 would have been practically inconceivable prior to the “Lehman shock” (as the Japanese refer to the genesis [...]
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The perils of overcapacity in Japan
“Recession ends in Japan,” and headlines to that effect portray a different picture than the real one on the streets. In fact, despite the headline rebound in GDP, propping open the hood shows that the outlook for Japan is a return to status quo, little to nil export-driven growth at best, and raises the likelihood [...]
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What a run on the dollar could mean for Japan, the yen
In 1996, in The Future of Capitalism, Lester Thurow observed the following: When a run against the dollar starts, there are enormous amounts of money that can, and will, move into appreciating currencies. Sixty percent of official reserves and 50 percent of private reserves are currently held in dollars. Those funds will certainly move, but [...]
Japan lost, but not dead, in deflation
For Japan, the 1990s are commonly referred to as the “lost decade.” Those that know me are aware that I look beyond that and actually regard a quarter-century as the appropriate “lost” duration. However, if one really thinks about what has transpired and where we are today, it is rather impressive that Japan continues to [...]
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